A Look Back At Yesterday’s Tomorrow
Saturday, November 20th, 2010
Back in the day (that day being 1978-1995), Omni magazine was a must-read, sort of a cross between Wired and Scientific American with a little Galaxy and Heavy Metal thrown in.
While searching through my vast archives, I came across a copy of the October 1989 issue with the tantalizing cover headline: “Trends and Predictions for the Year 2000 and Beyond.” I wish there were somewhere I could link to that gives you the entire issue; it’s a treasure-trove of fascinating material. Here’s a taste, though, from an article entitled: “Brainstorms: The World’s Top Think Tanks Predict the Future.”
Computers and new materials will alter the American home. … Most appliances will carry computer chips for optimal operation. … The twenty-first century classroom will resemble a high-tech training center with workstations at every desk. …Instead of using encyclopedias, Americans of the twenty-first century will tap something called hypermedia: a highly sophisticated computer design that will link databases and make them accessible to the user. People using this powerful tool will be able to scan a document, click a cursor on a word, and see volumes of information on that subject. (Note: The term “hyperlink” was coined back in 1964 or 1965, according to Wikipedia.)
Here’s some more:
Every American home will have a high-definition television — a high-tech, digital television whose pictures are as clear as those seen in Hollywood motion pictures. … By 2010, when computer components have become significantly smaller, business executives will use the “head office,” a supercomputer so compact that it can be put into a headset, complete with voice recognition input, advanced communications technology, and a high-resolution video display. This device will make it possible to obtain up-to-date market information, perform sophisticated market analyses, and negotiate deals from anywhere in the world. … Manufacturing jobs will drop from 28 percent of the total workforce in 1981 to 11 percent in 2000 and 3 percent in 2030. The information industry, which represents 55 percent of today’s workforce, will constitute 80 percent by 2000.
It’s remarkable to see how yesterday’s futuristic visions have become today’s common reality. According to the Population Reference Bureau, that 11 percent prediction for 2000 wasn’t far off, and in 2009 the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics measured manufacturing as 9.8% of the workforce. Then again, they categorize the “information” industry at 2.2% — a far cry from the 80 percent predicted by Omni’s think tank.
Which might be a small consolation, given this sobering excerpt from the article:
This was the most distressing — and persistent — prediction that we came across. “It’s scary to think about,” said one of our correspondents. “While a minority of humanity will live in a high-tech fantasy world, the majority will live in overcrowded, filthy cities lacking basic services.” Experts have even coined a name for such cities of the future: apocalyptic megalopolises.
As Yogi Berra famously said: The future ain’t what it used to be.
